The photovoltaic sector rose 48.51% in the first three quarters, ranking third.
The photovoltaic sector rose 48.51% in the first three quarters of 2019, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen by 30021.61 pct, exceeding the average increase of CITIC power equipment industry, and ranking third only below CITIC food and beverage and electronic components. Among them, manufacturing enterprises such as Oriental Risheng, Longji shares, Central shares, Tongwei shares and so on rose a lot.
Sector revenue year-on-year + 27.39%, deduction of non-performance year-on-year + 35.38%, obvious differentiation in sub-sectors
The revenue of 27 photovoltaic listed companies in the first three quarters was 148.3 billion yuan, + 27.39% compared with the same period last year, and the non-return net profit was 13.764 billion yuan, + 35.38% compared with the same period last year. The performance of the subdivision is differentiated. The net profit of the manufacturing sector, which accounts for a relatively large amount of profit, increases by 54.21%, and the net profit of the auxiliary materials plate increases by 54.25%. The growth rate of the two plates continued to increase compared with the first half of the year, which played a supporting role in the overall deduction of non-net profit growth in the photovoltaic industry. The equipment sector deducted the non-home net profit growth rate of 7.32%, and the power station operation-4.6% BOS plate-6.54%, to a certain extent, slowed down the overall profit growth of the photovoltaic industry.
Industry ROE has rebounded sharply, profitability has improved, and leading advantages have been highlighted
In the first three quarters of 2019, the ROE of the photovoltaic industry rebounded sharply to 9.32% from 7.84% in the same period last year, mainly driven by the increase in net interest rate on sales. The net profit rate of industry sales in the first three quarters was 10.76%, an increase of 1.06pct compared with the same period last year. Longji shares, Tongwei shares in the first three quarters of the ROE were 16.5%, 14.04%, in the industry leading position, the strong Hengqiang, and the leader in the payback ability, income quality also has a better performance.
In the future, the demand in the overseas market is expected to continue to grow, and the start of domestic projects will drive the installation.
According to customs data, Chinese component exports in the first three quarters were nearly 50GW, + 80 per cent year-on-year. According to our estimate, the newly installed overseas photovoltaic will be about 96GW in 2019. According to the National Energy Administration, the national photovoltaic newly installed 15.99GW in the first three quarters, and the domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to further increase in the fourth quarter and early next year as the photovoltaic bidding project starts to follow up. According to photovoltaics, the photovoltaic construction plan for 2020 is expected to be introduced as soon as possible, allowing sufficient time to achieve the target of installation next year. In addition, if the comprehensive parity policy is implemented in 2021, the full decline of subsidies will lead to the emergence of rush installation in the photovoltaic industry next year.
Prices in the supply chain have stopped falling and stabilized, and corporate profits are expected to bottom out and pick up.
PVinfolink data show that the price of silicon has also stopped falling and stabilized, and the increase in demand is expected to lead to a rise in silicon prices in 2020. After the price of single crystal PERC battery bottomed out at the end of August, the price remained stable or increased slightly for 9 consecutive weeks. The latest mainstream quotations of single / double-sided single crystal PERC battery are all 0.94 yuan / W, up 0.02 yuan / W and 0.01 yuan / W respectively compared with last week. We expect that under the drive of reasonable price difference of single polycrystal cell, the price of single crystal battery will maintain stability or rise slightly, which will improve the profitability of photovoltaic battery business.
Investment suggestion
Continue to recommend the photovoltaic plate, continue to recommend global silicon material and battery leader Tongwei shares, single crystal silicon wafers and components leading Longji shares, inverter and photovoltaic power station leading sunlight power supply, etc., pay attention to Central shares, Big New Energy, Xinyi Solar Energy, Follett, Foster, Oriental Sunrise, Zhengtai Electrical Appliances and photovoltaic equipment enterprises Jingsheng Mechatronics, Jijiawei Chuang (covered by mechanical group), Maichi shares and so on (covered by mechanical group).
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